Venezuela’s political transition entered a new phase after the arrest of President Nicolás Maduro, with markets and observers watching who could lead the country next.
Prediction market Kalshi lists opposition figure and bitcoin advocate María Corina Machado as a leading contender to be head of state by the end of 2026.
Odds after Maduro arrest
Kalshi puts Machado at about a 27% chance of leading Venezuela by end-2026.
She trails opposition politician Edmundo González Urrutia, whom the opposition says won the 2025 presidential election.
Machado is ahead of Vice President Delcy Rodríguez, who was appointed acting president after Maduro’s arrest.
Maduro was detained on Jan. 3, 2025, and flown to the United States to face federal charges tied to corruption and narcotics trafficking, the report said.
Bitcoin in Machado’s platform
Machado has argued that bitcoin served as a “lifeline” for Venezuelans during hyperinflation and the bolívar’s collapse in purchasing power since 2013.
Machado said:
“Venezuelans found a lifeline in Bitcoin during hyperinflation, using it to protect their wealth and to finance their escape.”
The report said she has also floated bitcoin as part of a future economic model, including potential use as a reserve asset and as a payments tool.
Trump comments and mining crackdowns
US President Donald Trump said Washington would be involved in managing Venezuela’s transition until new leadership is formed.
Trump also publicly questioned Machado’s ability to secure domestic support.
Separately, Venezuela’s ruling party has previously shut down bitcoin mining operations and seized equipment, citing violations and illegal electricity use.
