Bitcoin’s recent price action has many investors speculating on the next major move, but according to macroeconomist Lyn Alden, a significant crash appears unlikely for now.
Market not in euphoric territory
During a recent episode of the What Bitcoin Did podcast, Alden explained that current conditions do not resemble past market peaks. She stated:
“We haven’t hit euphoric levels in this cycle; therefore, there is less of a reason to expect a kind of major capitulation.”
Bitcoin has pulled back sharply since reaching new all-time highs of $125,100 on October 5, falling as low as $80,700 before a modest recovery.
Over the past 30 days, bitcoin is down roughly 22%.
Four-year cycle theory questioned
Alden also challenged the widely-cited four-year cycle theory, emphasizing that broader macroeconomic factors and growing institutional interest are now more influential.
This view aligns with other industry commentators, such as Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan, who dismissed the idea that halving events solely dictate bull and bear cycles.
No guaranteed bull markets
Alden cautioned investors against assuming another prolonged uptrend is inevitable:
“People kind of get in their mindset where they are owed a bull market. No one is owed a bull market.”
She projects bitcoin could reclaim the $100,000 level by 2026, if not sooner, but stressed that market outcomes rarely match the extremes investors anticipate.
Diverging opinions on downside risk
Not all market voices agree with Alden’s view.
Vineet Budki, CEO of Sigma Capital, recently predicted a potential bitcoin retracement of 65% to 70% within the next two years.
Meanwhile, sentiment indicators such as the bitcoin fear and greed chart reflect a more cautious outlook among traders.
