Bitcoin is facing its weakest sentiment cycle yet, according to Lyn Alden, a Bitcoin-focused macroeconomist who said the asset must stand on its own after Strategy disclosed a $216 million Bitcoin sale earlier this week.
Interview
Speaking in a Tuesday interview with Bitcoin educator Natalie Brunell, Alden made clear that no external catalyst is coming to lift the market:
“I don’t think there’s anything coming to save Bitcoin.”
She pointed to Bitcoin’s underlying properties as a liquid, permissionless way to store and send value, rather than relying on new sources of demand:
“The asset just has to survive on its own merits.”
Sentiment falls to a cycle low
Her comments came after Strategy’s weekly 8-K filing revealed it had sold 3,588 BTC on Monday.
Alden said the current downturn feels different from the 2022 bear market, when Bitcoin fell as low as $16,000 but investor enthusiasm held firm:
“This is the lowest sentiment that I’ve personally seen on Bitcoin.”
Her base case is that Bitcoin will not set a new all-time high this year, though she noted its volatility leaves room for a sharp move up.
STRC and leverage risks
Michael Saylor’s Strategy, the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder, has faced growing scrutiny over its Bitcoin-backed capital structure.
Alden said STRC has become the biggest preferred security in the market, giving investors exposure without holding Bitcoin directly.
Still, she warned that higher-yielding BTC-linked products can push investors toward additional leverage.
