Bitcoin’s market structure is starting to resemble the late stages of the 2022 bear market, according to research and brokerage firm K33.
In a Tuesday report, K33 Head of Research Vetle Lunde said the firm’s proprietary “regime indicator” shows “strikingly strong similarities” to September and November 2022, periods that came near the prior cycle’s global low.
Regime signals echo late 2022
Lunde said the indicator blends derivatives yields, open interest, ETF flows, and macro inputs such as the U.S. yield curve.
He wrote:
“Strikingly strong similarities”
Bitcoin has fallen nearly 28% since January, K33 noted.
Funding rates have stayed negative for more than 11 consecutive days, while notional open interest fell below 260,000 BTC, which Lunde said reflects investors unwinding long exposure.
Consolidation, not a fast rebound
K33 said negative yields point to excess hedging demand, while falling open interest suggests traders are exiting positions rather than building new directional bets.
In strongly similar historical environments, the firm said average 90-day returns were about 3%.
Lunde said bitcoin could remain rangebound between $60,000 and $75,000 for a prolonged period.
ETF drawdowns and extreme fear
K33 also flagged cooler activity after the sell-off, including a 59% week-over-week drop in spot volumes and futures open interest at four-month lows.
The report added that bitcoin exchange-traded products have seen a record drawdown of 103,113 BTC from peak holdings since October.
Sentiment has also turned sharply defensive, with the Crypto Fear and Greed Index recently hitting a record-low reading of 5, Lunde noted.
