JPMorgan said its estimated bitcoin production cost, a metric it describes as a historical “soft price floor,” has fallen to $77,000 from $90,000 at the start of the year.
Why the estimate fell
The bank attributed the move to a recent decline in network hashrate and mining difficulty.
Analysts led by managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said the difficulty decline was the largest negative adjustment since China’s 2021 mining ban, taking the cumulative drop to about 15% year to date.
Mining difficulty adjusts roughly every two weeks to keep Bitcoin’s average block time near 10 minutes.
JPMorgan cited two main drivers.
First, bitcoin’s price decline this year has squeezed higher-cost operators, especially those running older machines or facing high power costs.
Second, severe winter storms in the U.S., particularly in Texas, forced large miners offline as grid operators curtailed electricity to conserve power.
Miner capitulation and selling pressure
JPMorgan said sharp difficulty drops have historically been associated with miner “capitulation,” when higher-cost miners are pushed to sell holdings to cover operating costs.
The analysts wrote:
“In the current juncture, certain high-cost miners have been selling their bitcoins to stay afloat/fund daily operations, or to reduce debt or to pivot to AI.”
Rebound expected, outlook stays upbeat
The report said the difficulty decline is also providing relief to miners that remain online, and the bank said it is already seeing a hashrate rebound that could lift difficulty and production cost at the next adjustment.
In a separate outlook note, JPMorgan said it remains “positive in crypto markets for 2026,” expecting flows to be led more by institutional investors.
