JPMorgan analysts have declared bitcoin’s current price as “too low” relative to gold, citing a dramatic decline in volatility to historic lows.
According to a Thursday note led by managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, bitcoin’s volatility has dropped from nearly 60% at the start of the year to roughly 30% now—a level not seen before.
Volatility drops to historic lows
The reduced volatility has strengthened bitcoin’s case for institutional investors.
The analysts explained that lower volatility draws bitcoin closer to gold in risk-adjusted terms, making it more appealing for large portfolio allocations.
The bitcoin-to-gold volatility ratio has slipped to 2.0, the lowest on record.
This means bitcoin now consumes only double the risk capital of gold in portfolio construction, a significant shift from previous years.
Corporate treasuries drive accumulation
A notable factor in this stability is the surge in corporate treasury purchases, which now account for over 6% of bitcoin’s total supply.
The accumulation by companies such as MicroStrategy (now known as Strategy), Metaplanet, and others is compared by JPMorgan to central bank quantitative easing, as these passive holdings reduce market swings.
Recent moves, like Metaplanet’s inclusion in the FTSE All-World Index, have also boosted passive inflows.
Upside potential to $126,000
Panigirtzoglou told The Block:
“Yes this is the upside we highlighted in our note, which we envisage to be reached by year end.”
JPMorgan calculates that, with bitcoin’s current $2.2 trillion market cap, a 13% increase is needed to match the private gold investment market on a risk-adjusted basis—implying a theoretical value near $126,000.
The gap has shifted from bitcoin trading $36,000 above this level at the end of 2024 to now $13,000 below, signaling further upside.
