James Check, founder and lead analyst at Checkonchain, says Bitcoin most likely set its cycle bottom near $58,000, and that anyone waiting on an October low has already missed it.
Two capitulations, six months apart
Bitcoin peaked just above $126,000 in October 2025 and traded near $77,400 this week, about 39% below that record.
Speaking on Cointelegraph’s Proof of Thesis show, Check called February’s slide toward $60,000 a price-pain capitulation, the point where buyers from the top gave up at heavy losses.
He put a second, slower capitulation near $58,000 in June and July, after months of flat trading left holders wondering if Bitcoin would recover at all.
Check told Cointelegraph:
“What’s the difference between $58,000 and $59,000 or $60,000? Nothing. It’s the six months that separated them. That’s the actual difference.”
Roughly $300 billion in cost basis sat between $58,000 and $70,000, and about 4 million BTC flipped from loss back into profit during the rebound.
Check added that long-term holders now sit on close to 80% of Bitcoin wealth and are unlikely to sell into a short bounce.
Look at the evidence, not the calendar
Check said the four-year cycle has no mechanical reason to keep repeating:
“Ask, ‘Well, now what do I do?’ long before your compass breaks. It’s like a broken clock. It’s right twice a day. Just assume it’s broken and find something better.”
Dates, he said, never explain why investors capitulate, so traders should be watching cost basis, realized losses and whether experienced holders are accumulating or distributing.
Grayscale lands on the same number
Grayscale head of research Zach Pandl told Cointelegraph’s Trade Secrets:
“I’m willing to stick my neck out and make a guess that prices bottomed back at $58,000 at the end of June.”
Pandl said this downturn produced less despair than earlier bear markets, and that Bitcoin’s refusal to fall further on bad news usually marks an oversold asset.
The onchain picture is not unanimous. HODL Waves data showed supply held for one to seven days rose only from 1.97% on July 1 to 2.35% on July 5, which Willy Woo read as a strangely muted response from dip buyers.
