Bitcoin miners are more likely to feel an Iran-related oil shock through bitcoin’s price action than through higher electricity bills, according to analysis from Luxor Technology’s Hashrate Index.
Oil spike and the Strait of Hormuz
The report followed coordinated U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets that disrupted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
About 20% of global oil supply typically flows through the strait.
Brent crude jumped from roughly $60 per barrel to above $100 before easing to around $90, the report noted.
Why power costs may not move much
Hashrate Index said crude oil is “essentially a rounding error” as a direct fuel source for mining, citing data from the Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance and the Bitcoin Mining Council showing more than half of the network runs on non-fossil energy.
The analysts argued the key question is whether oil shocks feed into electricity prices where mining is concentrated.
Their estimate is that roughly 90% of global hashrate operates in electricity markets with minimal correlation to crude oil.
They listed the United States, Russia, and China as the largest hashrate shares, followed by Paraguay, the UAE, Oman, Canada, Ethiopia, and Kazakhstan.
Revenue risk: bitcoin price and hashprice
Instead, the report said macro spillovers from oil shocks can hit miners via bitcoin price volatility, which compresses “hashprice,” or revenue per unit of computing power.
Hashrate Index said hashprice fell to an all-time low of $27.89 per PH/s/day in February after bitcoin dropped 23.8% from about $78,000 to $65,000.
The analysis added that over the past year, miners using rolling USD-denominated hashrate forward contracts outperformed spot mining by as much as 8.2%.
Separately, SynFutures COO Wenny Cai told The Block that Middle East tensions briefly strengthened the U.S. dollar, creating a short-term headwind for risk assets, while bitcoin held above $71,000 amid ETF inflows and tightening exchange supply.
What the report estimates is oil-sensitive
Hashrate Index estimated that Gulf states including the UAE and Oman represent about 6% of global hashrate in electricity systems more directly tied to crude.
Including exposure from Iran, Kuwait, Qatar, and Libya brings the crude-sensitive share to roughly 8% to 10%, according to the report.
