Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan said bitcoin’s next decade could look more like a steady climb than repeated boom-and-bust years.
Hougan said on CNBC:
“I think we’re in a 10-year grind upward of strong returns. It’s not spectacular returns, [but] strong returns, lower volatility, some up and down.”
Ten-year grind, not blowout years
Hougan said he still expects 2026 to be positive for bitcoin.
Hougan said:
“I think next year will be up.”
He previously shared that view in July, before bitcoin later reached a new all-time high of $125,100 in October.
Retail rotation and the four-year cycle debate
Hougan attributed part of bitcoin’s late-year weakness to what he called the “fast-moving retail crowd.”
He said retail investors rotated out in anticipation of the traditional four-year cycle.
ReserveOne CIO Sebastian Beau said it remains unclear whether the cycle is “dead.”
Beau said:
“All-time highs were 125,000, that was in early October, we are bordering on $87,000 today, down 30% relatively quickly, pretty painful.”
Bitcoin traded around $87,818 at publication time, down 3.81% over the past 30 days.
Institutions and politics
Hougan argued bitcoin’s drawdown has been milder than past cycles because of “persistent, slow-moving institutional buying.”
He said bitcoin is down about 30%, rather than the roughly 60% declines seen previously.
Hougan also downplayed the likelihood of additional price upside from US politics.
Hougan said:
“There’s not much more they can marginally do for Bitcoin.”
