Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan has laid out what to expect if the Clarity Act fails to advance this week, arguing the crypto industry will keep moving forward regardless of the outcome.
A make-or-break week
The legislation has been winding through Congress since May 2025, with roots tracing back to an earlier bill, FIT21, which the House passed in May 2024.
The U.S. Senate leaves for its August recess on Friday, August 7, and under Senate rules, Senators must file for cloture on Clarity by Wednesday, August 5, for a vote before the break.
Conventional wisdom holds that if Congress doesn’t act before the recess, the bill is likely dead. Polymarket puts the odds of Clarity passing in 2026 at just 27%, down from 82% in February.
Why it won’t really die
Hougan warned that a failure this week won’t bring resolution, but a “walking dead” state where the bill lingers into September or a December lame duck omnibus package.
He noted this uncertainty is keeping professional investors on the sidelines:
“They don’t want to allocate capital to crypto only to see the Clarity Act fail and send the market lower.”
Crypto marches ahead
Hougan pointed to SEC Chair Paul Atkins, who recently told CNBC the agency is:
“ready, willing, and able to come out with rules that address the same issues [as] Clarity.”
He cited BlackRock’s most profitable ETF being a bitcoin fund, tokenization moves by Nasdaq and JPMorgan, and OCC trust charters granted to Circle, Ripple, and Paxos.
Drawing a parallel to 1994’s failed telecom reform that preceded the internet boom, Hougan concluded:
“At this point, crypto has enough momentum that it will reshape finance for decades, regardless of what happens in the next few days.”
