BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes says the debt-fueled artificial intelligence infrastructure boom could end in a 2008-style credit crisis, and the resulting government liquidity response could drive Bitcoin to $1 million or higher.
A credit story, not an earnings story
In a Tuesday blog post, Hayes argued that investors have mistakenly treated spending on data centers and power infrastructure as high-growth tech investment rather than leveraged real estate.
He expects lenders to finance excessive construction before a slowdown in AI capital expenditure exposes weaker borrowers.
Hayes described the AI boom as a:
“Credit story like 2008 and not an earnings story like 2000.”
He said bitcoin could remain between $60,000 and $70,000, with possible downside to $50,000, before the credit cycle and resulting liquidity response drive a recovery.
Hayes also forecast that Ether would reach $5,000 by year-end and said his firm Maelstrom intends to build a significant position while selling out-of-the-money ETH put options.
Big Tech’s $1 trillion lease burden
The scale of commitments underpinning the AI boom is already visible.
Reuters reported that Microsoft, Meta, Oracle, Amazon and Alphabet have committed about $1.09 trillion to leases that have not yet commenced, mostly for data centers.
That figure is nearly four times the roughly $285 billion in lease liabilities already recognized. However, Reuters noted the sum represents undiscounted payments spread across several years, so it cannot simply be treated as debt.
Uneven financial strain
The strain is not evenly distributed.
Oracle’s debt was about 4.3 times its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, while Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft and Meta held ratios below one.
S&P Global analyst Andrew Chang said Oracle’s data-center leases, which run 15 to 19 years, pose a key risk because its customer contracts last no more than five years.
