Grayscale Research Head of Research Zach Pandl has published a note arguing that Strategy’s recent bitcoin sale has triggered broader market volatility, and that the company’s ability to keep accumulating bitcoin is now limited at current share prices.
Strategy disclosed on June 1 that it had sold 32 bitcoin — a small fraction of its roughly 840,000 BTC (~$55 billion) balance sheet. While the amount is negligible, Pandl argues the signal it sends has weighed heavily on sentiment.
The STRC pressure problem
Pandl’s note focuses less on the sale itself and more on what it means for STRC, Strategy’s variable rate preferred equity instrument, which is designed to trade at around $100 per share and currently pays an 11.5% dividend.
He wrote:
“A share price below $100 means that investors require a higher rate of return. Strategy can raise the dividend, but this will increase its cash-flow obligations in the future, potentially warranting more Bitcoin sales, which could result in more downward pressure on Bitcoin’s price.”
In other words, a falling STRC price creates a feedback loop — higher dividends mean more cash pressure, which could force further bitcoin sales.
Limited buying capacity
Pandl was direct about what this means for Strategy’s role as a market buyer:
“Strategy — which historically has been a net buyer of BTC — will have a limited ability to accumulate more tokens at current share prices for both STRC and MSTR.”
This matters because Strategy has been one of the most consistent sources of bitcoin demand in recent years.
Long-run outlook
Despite the near-term pressure, Pandl sees a path to recovery, though he cautioned that bitcoin may underperform other crypto segments in the short run as regulatory clarity benefits those markets more directly.
His broader view on market structure was optimistic:
“For the health of the Bitcoin ecosystem over the long run, less BTC on levered DAT balance sheets and more on diversified corporate balance sheets will be a positive.”
Grayscale Research expects bitcoin’s price to recover over the coming months, but says other buyers will need to step in to establish a sustainable floor.
