Grayscale Research has projected that bitcoin could achieve new all-time highs in 2026, defying widespread expectations of a prolonged downturn tied to the asset’s historical four-year cycle.
In a report released Monday, Grayscale analysts challenged the notion that bitcoin’s price must follow a pattern of peaking and then sharply correcting every four years, in line with its halving schedule. The firm stated:
“Although the outlook is uncertain, we believe the four-year cycle thesis will prove to be incorrect, and that bitcoin’s price will potentially make new highs next year.”
Price turbulence since october
Bitcoin has faced significant volatility, dropping 32% from its peak since early October.
On Monday, the price briefly reached $84,000 before rebounding to $86,909, reflecting the asset’s notorious price swings.
Grayscale emphasized that 25% or greater drawdowns are common during bull markets and do not necessarily signal the onset of a bear market.
For a detailed look at past corrections, see the bitcoin price drawdown from all-time high chart.
Reasons for breaking the cycle
Unlike previous cycles, Grayscale noted that this market has not experienced the typical parabolic rally preceding a reversal.
Institutional participation through exchange-traded products and digital asset treasuries has replaced the retail-driven action seen in earlier bull runs.
macro environment and institutional support
The report highlighted a supportive macro backdrop, citing potential interest rate cuts and bipartisan progress on U.S. bitcoin legislation as positive factors for the market.
other bullish voices
Tom Lee, CEO of BitMine, echoed Grayscale’s optimism, pointing to strong on-chain fundamentals despite recent price declines. Lee wrote:
“Crypto prices have fallen relentlessly even as fundamentals, measured by wallets, onchain, fees or tokenization, have moved forward.”
He told CNBC he expects bitcoin to reach a new all-time high by January 2026.
