Gold has slid firmly into bear market territory, with spot prices falling as much as 2% on Tuesday to trade around $4,335 an ounce — leaving the metal down roughly 21% from its late-January peak of $5,594.82.
Futures dropped about 2% to $4,317.80, while silver also declined.
The selloff accelerated after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a five-day pause on planned strikes against Iran’s energy infrastructure, easing some of the geopolitical risk premium that had been supporting prices.
A strengthening U.S. dollar, up roughly 3% since the conflict began on Feb. 28, also triggered profit-taking across the precious metals complex.
Analysts hold firm on long-term targets
Despite the sharp drop, several market veterans are refusing to abandon bullish long-term outlooks.
Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, lowered his year-end forecast to $5,000 per ounce from $6,000 — still around 15% above current levels — but held his longer-term call, telling CNBC:
“We are sticking with $10,000 by the end of the decade.”
Justin Lin, investment strategist at Global X ETFs, maintained a $6,000 year-end base case, calling the recent drop “a compelling entry point for investors.”
Lin attributed the selloff to short-term factors including interest rate sensitivity, equity market rebalancing, and complacency around the Iran conflict, rather than any deterioration in gold’s structural fundamentals.
Central bank demand seen as a floor
Lin emphasized his bullish view rests on “persistent geopolitical uncertainty, continued central bank demand, and sustained inflows from Asian gold ETF investors.”
He added there is a “high likelihood” central banks step up purchases following the recent drop, which could help stabilize prices.
Standard Chartered echoed this view, with Senior Investment Strategist Rajat Bhattacharya noting the bank expects gold to rebound toward $5,375 over the next three months once the current deleveraging phase subsides, with technical support seen around $4,100.
Bhattacharya pointed to a weaker U.S. dollar — expected once the Federal Reserve eventually cuts rates — as a key catalyst for recovery, noting:
“A weaker U.S. dollar should once again support gold prices.”
