Bitcoin’s relief rally has largely played out over the past two weeks, but Glassnode said the move stalled as price pushed into key cost-basis resistance.
On-chain resistance around $98k
Glassnode said bitcoin has been trading in a range, with downside supported near the True Market Mean at $81.1k and upside capped by the short-term holder (STH) cost basis.
The report noted that price advanced toward the ~$98k region as seller exhaustion appeared in early January 2026, but breakeven supply from recent buyers became increasingly active.
Glassnode wrote:
“The recent rejection near the Short-Term Holder cost basis at ~$98.4k mirrors the market structure observed in Q1 2022.”
Supply overhang and maturing sellers
Glassnode said the rally partially filled the $93k to $98k “air gap,” with redistribution forming new STH supply clusters.
However, it flagged a “wide and dense” supply zone above $100k that remains unresolved and could cap attempts above $98.4k and $100k.
Glassnode added:
“Until new demand emerges with sufficient strength to absorb this overhead supply, long-term holders remain a latent source of resistance.”
It also pointed to realized losses dominated by the 3–6 month cohort, consistent with pain-driven exits by buyers who accumulated above $110k.
Spot improves, derivatives stay quiet
Off-chain, Glassnode said spot CVD on Binance and aggregate venues rotated back toward net buying, while Coinbase selling slowed.
Corporate treasury flows were described as sporadic and event-driven, rather than sustained.
In derivatives, Glassnode said futures volume remains compressed and options repricing is mostly front-end, with one-week implied volatility up more than 13 points since Sunday’s sell-off.
Glassnode concluded:
“The market is pricing short-lived risk, not a lasting disruption.”
