Glassnode’s latest on-chain report describes a bitcoin market wound tight, stuck in a narrow range with the weakest participation in seven years even as equities print record highs.
Good news, no reaction
July core inflation eased a tenth to 2.5%, the headline rate was flat, and the Effective Fed Funds Rate has sat unchanged since December.
Still, bitcoin barely moved. Glassnode flagged the muted response as the bigger story:
“The response worries us more than the release. In the hours since the print, Bitcoin has barely bounced and equities have slipped.”
US equities hit a fresh all-time high on August 7, driven largely by the AI trade, while bitcoin trades at roughly half its October 2025 peak.
Pinned between two cost bases
Spot sits just above the Median Realized Price at $63,000 and below the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $68,700, meaning recent buyers remain underwater and quick to sell rallies.
The aggregate realized price near $52,800 shows the average coin still holds a profit, so the broad market has never been forced into loss this cycle.
Spot exchange volume measured in coins has fallen to its lowest level since the series began in early 2019.
Sellers tiring, buyers absent
Barely half of circulating supply holds an unrealized profit, and the Seller Exhaustion Constant has ground to a cycle low. Adjusted SOPR has been rejected at break-even nine times since the October top.
ETF net flows turned positive in late July for the first time in months, but at a fraction of past accumulation waves.
Meanwhile, futures open interest now exceeds a full day of futures volume, and Hyperliquid whales have closed net long every day since mid-March.
Glassnode concluded:
“Thin bids, heavy leverage and record-low volume leave downside moves prone to overshoot.”
