The enduring relevance of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle has been a topic of debate among analysts and industry leaders.
According to Saad Ahmed, Gemini’s head of APAC region, the psychological patterns behind the cycle remain strong.
Ahmed explained during an interview at Token2049 in Singapore that:
“I think when it comes to the four-year cycle, the reality is that it’s very likely that we’ll continue to see some form of a cycle. It ultimately stems from people get really excited and overextend themselves, and then you kind of see a crash, and then it kind of corrects to an equilibrium.”
Institutional involvement may dampen volatility
Ahmed noted that increased institutional participation in the bitcoin market could moderate price swings.
He said that while some volatility could “flag off,” cycles would persist because they are ultimately driven by human sentiment.
Analysts debate the cycle’s future
The debate over the persistence of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle has been ongoing.
On August 21, analytics firm Glassnode indicated that recent price action might still be tracking the historic halving cycle, which typically leads to major price movements every four years.
October could mark a cycle peak
Some analysts, such as Rekt Capital, have suggested that if past trends hold, Bitcoin’s cycle peak could occur in October—around 550 days after the April 2024 halving.
October has historically been the strongest quarter for Bitcoin, with an average return of 79.39% since 2013, according to CoinGlass.
In early October, Bitcoin surged 11.5% in a week, coming close to its all-time high.
Mixed views on future performance
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan has expressed skepticism that future price action will mirror previous cycles.
However, he remains optimistic about the coming years, stating:
“I bet 2026 is an up year… I broadly think we’re in for a good few years.”
