Key Takeaways
- Polymarket launched bets on whether Fort Knox gold reserves will be audited.
- Senator Rand Paul and Glenn Beck are urging Trump to conduct an audit.
- Gold prices have surged, with Goldman Sachs raising its target to $3,100.
Polymarket, a betting platform focused on political and financial events, introduced two prediction markets on Feb. 17 related to a potential Fort Knox audit.
One market bets on whether Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) will conduct an audit by May 2025, while the other speculates on the audit’s findings.
At the time of writing, the odds of an audit happening by April stood at 56%, reflecting uncertainty about whether the U.S. government will follow through with the first official audit of its gold reserves since 1974.
Political push for audit
The push for an audit began on Feb. 16 when Senator Rand Paul called for an official review of Fort Knox’s 4,600 tons of gold reserves, valued at approximately $430 billion.
The following day, conservative commentator Glenn Beck urged President Donald Trump to conduct the audit, stating:
This could be a defining moment in your legacy of fighting for transparency and putting America first.
Despite Musk’s continued advocacy, Trump has yet to comment.
In a 2015 interview, however, Trump suggested doubts about U.S. gold holdings, stating:
We don’t have the gold. Other places have the gold.
Market implications
If discrepancies were found in Fort Knox’s reserves, analysts suggest it may not significantly impact markets due to the relatively small amount of gold involved.
However, some Bitcoin advocates argue that a negative audit outcome could shake confidence in the U.S. dollar and drive demand for Bitcoin.
Gold price surge
Meanwhile, gold prices have surged, reaching an inflation-adjusted record above $2,940 last week, prompting Goldman Sachs to raise its year-end gold price target to $3,100.
