Key Takeaways
- The FOMC meeting and Powell's speech are key for Bitcoin.
- Consumer confidence and GDP reports will drive sentiment.
- PCE data may shape Bitcoin's inflation hedge narrative.
The crypto market is poised for a volatile week, with Bitcoin’s performance closely tied to five major U.S. economic events, including the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech on January 29.
Federal Reserve policy outlook
All eyes are on the Federal Reserve’s first rate decision of the year under President Donald Trump.
The CME FedWatch tool indicates a 99.5% probability that interest rates will remain unchanged at 4.25%–4.5%.
Market participants are expecting significant volatility following Fed Chair Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET on January 29.
Political & economic tensions
Crypto trader Roger Smith said:
Trump is demanding rate cuts, but Powell’s signaling no change. This showdown could rock the markets.
The Fed’s hawkish stance, combined with inflationary concerns tied to Trump’s fiscal policies, has already exerted downward pressure on risk assets, including Bitcoin.
Economic data calendar
In addition to the FOMC meeting, traders are watching other critical economic indicators this week:
- Consumer Confidence (Jan. 28): Expected to rise to 106.3 from 104.7, signaling potential shifts in consumer spending and risk appetite.
- GDP (Jan. 30): A forecasted slowdown to 2.5% from 3.1% may influence Bitcoin as a risk asset.
- Jobless Claims (Jan. 30): Predicted at 225,000, higher claims could boost Bitcoin as a hedge against economic instability.
- PCE Inflation Data (Jan. 31): A key inflation metric for the Fed, rising PCE numbers may bolster Bitcoin’s appeal as an inflation hedge.
Current market status
As of January 27, Bitcoin is trading at $100,355, down nearly 5% since the start of the week.
With uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policy and the economic data ahead, Bitcoin traders are bracing for significant price swings.
