Fidelity Digital Assets has projected that as much as 8.3 million bitcoin—about 42% of the total circulating supply—could become ‘illiquid’ by 2032, with the majority locked away by long-term holders and public companies.
Fidelity identifies key holders
In its latest report, Fidelity analyzed two main groups:
Wallets that have held bitcoin for at least seven years, and publicly traded companies with a minimum of 1,000 BTC.
The firm defined ‘illiquid’ supply as coins held by these groups, whose balances have consistently increased almost every quarter over the last four years.
Fidelity stated:
“We estimate that this combined group will hold over six million Bitcoin by the end of 2025 — or over 28% of the 21 million Bitcoin that will ever exist.”
Data from Bitbo confirms that public companies currently hold more than 969,000 BTC, about 4.6% of bitcoin’s total supply.
To see a database of such holdings, visit the bitcoin treasuries tracker.
Growth in long-term holding
Long-term holders—wallets with coins unmoved for over seven years—have not seen any net outflows since 2016, according to Fidelity.
Publicly traded companies have also largely retained their bitcoin, with only one quarter of net selling since 2022.
With 105 public companies now holding bitcoin, this institutional cohort may expand further.
Implications for market supply
Fidelity projects that if current accumulation trends persist, 8.3 million BTC could be illiquid by Q2 2032.
The report notes that this tightening supply could impact market dynamics, especially as the circulating supply reached approximately 19.8 million BTC at the close of Q2 2025.
Risks from whale sell-offs
Despite the growth in illiquid supply, the report by Fidelity highlights potential risks if large holders, or ‘whales,’ choose to sell.
In the last 30 days, whales have reportedly sold nearly $12.7 billion in bitcoin, marking the largest sell-off since mid-2022.
