The Federal Reserve is expected to hold its benchmark interest rate steady, despite President Trump’s public push for cuts.
Economists polled by FactSet expect the federal funds rate to remain in a 3.5% to 3.75% range, after the Fed delivered rate cuts at three consecutive meetings late last year.
Rate decision timing
The Fed will announce its decision at 2 p.m. ET later today.
Powell is scheduled to hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.
Political and legal turmoil around the Fed
The meeting follows weeks of controversy involving the central bank.
The Department of Justice has opened an investigation into Powell tied to renovations of the Fed’s historic buildings, which Powell has described as a pretext to weaken the Fed’s independence.
The Supreme Court is also weighing whether Fed Governor Lisa Cook can keep her job after Trump sought to remove her.
Stephen Kates, a financial analyst at Bankrate, told CBS News:
“It probably would have been a sleepy meeting if it weren’t for the Supreme Court hearing about Lisa Cook, the [Justice Department] investigation into the renovation and the search for the replacement for the Fed chair.”
Polymarket odds and the Powell successor search
Betting markets have also focused on the Fed’s next move and the leadership question.
On Polymarket’s “Fed decision in January?” market, “No change” was priced at 99.6%, with under 1% odds assigned to a 25 bps decrease, a 25+ bps increase, or a 50+ bps decrease.
Trump is also expected to name a successor to Powell, whose term as Fed chair expires in May.
CBS News reported potential candidates include Kevin Hassett, Christopher Waller, and Kevin Warsh, while BlackRock CIO Rick Rieder has recently emerged as a leading contender, according to betting markets.
As one of 12 voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed chair is only one vote in decisions to cut, raise, or hold rates.
