Bitcoin’s rebound above $73,000 on Thursday is more likely a short-term “relief rally” than the start of a new bullish cycle, according to CryptoQuant.
Why CryptoQuant sees a bear market
Julio Moreno, CryptoQuant’s head of research, said the firm’s core signals have not improved enough to call a cycle turn.
Moreno wrote in a Thursday report:
“Bitcoin is still inside a bear market, despite the recent price rally.”
He added:
“Fundamental and technical indicators still point to a bear market environment […] As such, the current rally is best interpreted as a relief rally inside the ongoing bear market.”
Spot demand contraction eases
Moreno said bitcoin’s apparent spot demand contraction narrowed from around -136,000 BTC at the start of 2026 to about -25,000 BTC.
He said the improvement suggests selling pressure has eased since early February.
US buying signals improve
CryptoQuant also pointed to strengthening demand from US investors.
The Coinbase bitcoin premium, which tracks buying activity from US-based traders, shifted from “deeply negative” earlier in February to its most positive level since October, Moreno said.
Resistance levels and bull score
Despite the rebound, CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin Bull Score Index remains at 10 out of 100.
Moreno said the next resistance levels could appear near $79,000 and $90,000, tied to traders’ onchain realized price bands.
Moreno said:
“Indeed, this band acted as resistance in mid-January, after Bitcoin rallied from $80,000 to $98,000.”
Bitcoin was trading around $71,160, down nearly 3% over the past 24 hours.
The move follows a period in which long-term holder selling slowed, with a 30-day selling pace falling from roughly 904,000 BTC on Nov. 26 to around 276,000 BTC, the lowest level since June 2025.
Traders’ unrealized losses also recently reached levels last seen in July 2022, a condition Moreno said has historically reduced marginal selling.
