Bitcoin and ether prices surged following President Trump’s announcement of a U.S.-Iran two-week ceasefire, with bitcoin climbing roughly 4% and ether about 6% within 24 hours — the strongest single-day move in over a month.
According to CryptoQuant, the move was not a short squeeze but something more deliberate.
Fresh longs, not short liquidations
Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, said in a Thursday report that open interest in BTC perpetual futures rose by $2.1 billion and ETH by $2.2 billion within 24 hours of the ceasefire announcement.
Dollar-denominated open interest for both assets reached levels not seen in nearly a month.
Moreno wrote:
“This synchronized surge across both major assets reflects macro-event-driven positioning, with traders front-running an anticipated improvement in broader risk sentiment. Crucially, coin-denominated open interest also increased significantly for both assets, ruling out short liquidations as the primary driver and confirming that traders are opening net new long positions.”
The taker buy-sell ratio for both bitcoin and ether moved above 1, indicating dominant buying pressure and stronger directional conviction.
U.S. demand picks up
Demand from U.S.-based investors also recovered. The Coinbase Premium Index turned positive for both bitcoin and ether after remaining negative for several weeks.
Moreno noted:
“If the ceasefire holds and no escalatory news emerges over the next two weeks, the Coinbase premium could sustain positive territory, reinforcing the bullish price trajectory.”
Moreno also added:
“The coordinated bullish positioning across BTC and ETH reinforces that the market is pricing in a sustained improvement in macro conditions at least in the short-term.”
Key price levels to watch
On the bitcoin price side, bitcoin has moved above the traders’ lower realized price near $69,400, a level that had acted as resistance for several weeks.
If bitcoin holds above this level and no new escalation emerges from the U.S.-Iran front, CryptoQuant sees the next key target at the traders’ realized price around $79,000 — a level historically associated with bear market resistance and what Moreno called “a key hurdle for structural recovery.”
The MVRV Z-Score and other on-chain metrics will be closely watched to see whether this rally has the structural support to continue.
