CryptoQuant said a bitcoin bear market has already started, citing a sharp slowdown in demand growth.
Demand slowdown since October
CryptoQuant wrote in a Friday report that spot demand growth has “decisively slowed,” arguing the market has shifted into a bear regime.
The firm said demand has fallen below trend since early October 2025, after three major demand waves since 2023 tied to the U.S. spot ETF launch, the U.S. presidential election outcome, and a bitcoin treasury-company “bubble.”
CryptoQuant said this suggests most incremental demand in the current cycle has already been absorbed, reducing price support:
“BTC demand growth has decisively slowed, signaling a transition into a bear market.”
Price levels: $70,000 and $56,000
CryptoQuant said “intermediate support” is expected around $70,000.
It added that bitcoin bear market bottoms have historically aligned with the realized price, which it put near $56,000:
“Historically, bitcoin bear market bottoms have aligned with the realized price, currently near $56,000.”
Julio Moreno, CryptoQuant’s head of research, told The Block that a move to $70,000 could happen within months:
“$70,000 could be in three to six months.”
ETFs and derivatives signals
CryptoQuant said U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs became net sellers in Q4 2025, with holdings down roughly 24,000 BTC.
The firm also pointed to weakening growth in addresses holding 100 to 1,000 BTC, a cohort that includes ETFs and bitcoin treasury companies.
CryptoQuant said perpetual futures funding rates on a 365-day moving average fell to their lowest level since December 2023.
It also said bitcoin slipped below its 365-day moving average, a long-term level often associated with bull/bear conditions.
CryptoQuant added that demand cycles, not the halving, drive bitcoin’s four-year cycle:
“Demand cycles — not halvings — drive bitcoin’s four-year cycle.”
Bitcoin was trading around $87,800 at the time of the report.
