Bitcoin was trading near $87,834 on Dec. 26 as it underperformed gold and major equity indices, prompting questions about whether this cycle is unfolding differently.
In a Cointelegraph interview, analyst Benjamin Cowen argued the current backdrop looks similar to 2019, with bitcoin reacting more to realized liquidity than to expectations.
Liquidity, not optimism
Cowen said stocks and gold have been buoyed by anticipation of future monetary easing, while bitcoin has been slower to respond.
He said bitcoin tends to need a clearer macro catalyst before it can outperform.
Cowen said:
“Bitcoin appears far more sensitive to actual liquidity conditions rather than optimism alone.”
Apathy stands out
Cowen pointed to subdued market attention compared with prior cycle peaks.
He said topping during a period of low retail enthusiasm would be unusual for bitcoin.
Cowen said:
“This market has been marked by relative apathy.”
Four-year cycle debate
While some commentators argue bitcoin’s four-year cycle framework is no longer relevant, Cowen said broader market cycles still matter.
He highlighted macro headwinds such as labor market trends and restrictive financial conditions as potential drags into 2026.
Cowen said:
“Macro headwinds … may continue to weigh on Bitcoin into 2026, even if short-term rallies occur along the way.”
Process over price targets
Cowen emphasized “process over prediction,” focusing on how investors think about risk, cycles, and patience when easy liquidity is not guaranteed.
He also briefly addressed altcoins, saying expectations for quick rotations may be misplaced.
