Key Takeaways
- Coinbase Institutional forecasts a bullish bitcoin market for late 2025 amid rising corporate adoption and regulatory progress.
- Leveraged bitcoin accumulation by public companies introduces systemic risks, but immediate forced selling is unlikely due to long debt maturities.
- Key U.S. regulatory bills and multiple pending bitcoin ETF applications could further shape the market landscape in the coming months.
Coinbase Institutional projects a positive outlook for bitcoin in the second half of 2025, citing improved U.S. economic growth, potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, and increasing corporate adoption of bitcoin treasuries.
According to David Duong, Coinbase Institutional’s Global Head of Research:
“Despite the risks, we think bitcoin’s upward trend is expected to continue.”
Systemic risks from leveraged bets
However, Duong warns that the rise of publicly traded companies accumulating bitcoin using leveraged strategies—often through convertible debt—may pose systemic risks.
As of June 2025, 228 public firms collectively hold 820,000 BTC, with many adopting a funding model pioneered by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy). This trend accelerated after Financial Accounting Standards Board rules changed in December 2024, allowing fair market value reporting for bitcoin holdings.
Duong notes that most outstanding debt from these firms does not mature until 2029 or later, reducing immediate forced selling risk. He adds”
“So long as the loan-to-value (LTV) ratios stay reasonable, we believe that the largest companies are likely to have access to refinancing methods that may help them navigate the situation without necessarily liquidating their reserve holdings.”
Still, as debts mature or more firms adopt leveraged models, risks could intensify.
Regulatory clarity and economic momentum
Coinbase also highlights easing U.S. recession fears, with the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate at 3.8% as of June 5, and ongoing bipartisan efforts for stablecoin and bitcoin legislation.
Key regulatory bills, such as the GENIUS and STABLE Acts, may pass by August, while the SEC reviews nearly 80 bitcoin ETF proposals.
Duong concludes that while volatility remains possible, especially if growth slows, bitcoin and gold could benefit as safe havens if the dollar weakens.
