El Salvador President Nayib Bukele has drawn attention to the growing interest in prediction markets wagering on the country’s Bitcoin treasury reaching $1 billion by the end of 2025.
On Thursday, Bukele posted on X, noting a surge in activity on Kalshi’s prediction market, where the odds of El Salvador hitting the $1 billion milestone before November jumped from 20% to 38%, before settling at 27%.
Prediction market activity rises
Following Bukele’s post, competing platform Polymarket quickly launched its own market on the same event, with odds showing a 43% chance that El Salvador’s Bitcoin holdings would reach $1 billion by December 2025.
Kalshi has tracked this bet since mid-August, with odds previously holding steady before the recent spike.
Previous controversy over bitcoin purchases
Despite optimism on prediction markets, questions remain regarding the country’s official Bitcoin acquisition policy.
In July, El Salvador’s central bank president and finance minister claimed that the country had stopped buying Bitcoin after finalizing a $1.4 billion loan agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
However, Bukele and the official Bitcoin Office continued to announce new purchases, with current reported holdings at 6,282 BTC (approximately $709 million).
For up-to-date data, see the El Salvador Bitcoin treasury tracker.
Impact and industry response
Neither Kalshi nor Polymarket have addressed the earlier controversy with dedicated markets.
Meanwhile, the momentum in prediction markets coincides with a $15 million fundraising announcement for Clearing Company, a new prediction platform.
The ongoing debate over El Salvador’s Bitcoin strategy continues to draw global attention as the country’s holdings approach the $1 billion mark.
