Veteran trader Peter Brandt has indicated that Bitcoin may be on the verge of dramatic price action, especially if it breaks from its established four-year cycle pattern.
Brandt outlines cycle timing
Brandt explained that in previous cycles, the time from cycle low to halving, and from halving to high, has always been equal.
Bitcoin’s latest cycle low occurred on November 9, 2022, exactly 533 days before the most recent halving on April 20, 2024. Adding 533 days from the halving lands on the previous Sunday, just before Bitcoin set a new all-time high above $126,100.
Potential for unprecedented price action
Brandt emphasized the risk and opportunity if Bitcoin’s price action deviates from this cycle. He stated:
“Trends that violate the prevailing cyclic or seasonal nature of markets are typically the most dramatic.”
While Brandt remains cautious, he is optimistic about the potential upside.
He said he is split 50/50 on the outcome, but if Bitcoin breaks the pattern, a move well beyond $150,000, and possibly up to $185,000, could be possible.
Debate over the four-year cycle
The discussion over Bitcoin’s four-year cycle continues as institutional adoption and ETF products reshape the market.
Analyst Rekt Capital recently noted that if the current cycle follows the 2020 pattern, the market peak may arrive in October.
Others, such as economist Timothy Peterson, estimate a 50% chance for Bitcoin to close the month above $140,000 based on historical data.
Broader market expectations
Looking further ahead, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes and Unchained’s Joe Burnett have projected potential price targets as high as $250,000 by the end of 2025.
However, as Brandt cautioned, cycles eventually change, and market participants should remain vigilant.
