Key Takeaways
- Bitwise CIO expects a strong Bitcoin rally by Q4.
- September has historically been the worst month for Bitcoin, with an average 4.5% decline.
- Factors like election uncertainty and Fed decisions are impacting the market.
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan expects a strong Bitcoin rally in the fourth quarter of 2024.
He notes that current macroeconomic factors, including uncertainty around the U.S. presidential election and Federal Reserve rate cuts, will likely lift by October and November.
September usually weak
Hougan points out that September has historically been a weak month for Bitcoin, with an average price drop of 4.5%.
So far, Bitcoin has already fallen around 3% this month.
In a note to clients, Hougan highlighted three reasons for this “September effect”:
- Increased volatility in risk assets after summer.
- The end of the SEC’s fiscal year sparking enforcement actions.
- Investor reflexivity reinforcing September’s negative trend.
Rest of year
However, Hougan remains optimistic for the remainder of the year.
He pointed to “Uptober,” a period when Bitcoin historically performs better, offering hope for a market rebound once uncertainties around elections and monetary policy are resolved.
Hougan said:
Markets hate uncertainty, and there is a lot of uncertainty in the market right now.
