Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan said bitcoin’s early-2026 strength can extend, but only if the market clears three key “checkpoints.”
Hougan wrote in a late-Tuesday note that bitcoin was up about 7% year-to-date before the price pulled back on Wednesday.
A blow-up the market avoided
Hougan said the first hurdle has already been cleared.
He pointed to the Oct. 10 liquidation event that wiped out at least $20 billion in bitcoin futures positions in a single day, and said fears of forced unwinds by large firms faded after no major wind-downs materialized by year-end.
Hougan wrote:
One of the reasons I think we’ve rallied to start this year is that investors have put Oct. 10 in the rearview. If it were going to happen, it probably would have happened by now.
Washington’s next test
The second hurdle, Hougan said, is U.S. legislation.
He highlighted the market structure bill known as the Clarity Act, with a Senate markup targeted for Jan. 15.
Equity risk still matters
Hougan’s third factor is the broader equity market.
He said bitcoin does not need a booming stock market, but warned a sharp selloff could weigh on risk assets in the short term.
Hougan also framed the backdrop as one of growing institutional participation, including U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, alongside expanding stablecoin and tokenization use cases.
