Key Takeaways
- Bitwise analysis shows Bitcoin averages a 64.6% rebound within 50 days of major geopolitical events since 2010.
- The Puell Multiple remains near a discount zone, indicating that Bitcoin is potentially undervalued despite recent price highs.
- Data from Glassnode and historical studies suggest the current dip could offer a strong entry point, with most holders remaining in profit.
Bitcoin’s price fell to $102,650 on Binance following Israel’s airstrikes on Iran, prompting renewed analysis from Bitwise Europe’s head of research, André Dragosch.
In a recent X post, Dragosch pointed to data from the top 20 geopolitical risk events since 2010, showing that Bitcoin has averaged a 64.6% price increase within 50 days after such events, with a median gain of 17.3%.
Geopolitical events and historical rebounds
The chart posted by Dragosch shows Bitcoin’s performance on a logarithmic scale, typically remaining stable before a risk event, then surging in the following weeks.
Dragosch’s analysis suggests the current price drop may be temporary, referencing historical patterns of recovery after major global tensions.
Blockstream CEO Adam Back echoed Bitwise’s findings, noting that in 10 major events since 2020, Bitcoin has often outperformed gold and the S&P 500.
For example, after the U.S.-Iran escalation in January 2020, Bitcoin gained 20%. A 2020 academic study also supports these observations, finding Bitcoin both reacts to and stabilizes during times of geopolitical uncertainty.
Puell Multiple signals discounted conditions
Bitwise’s thesis is further reinforced by the Puell Multiple, which measures miner revenue relative to the annual average.
Data shows the Puell Multiple remains near the discount zone below 1.40, even as Bitcoin trades near all-time highs.
“Therefore, the current scenario represents a potential window of opportunity. The combination of a historically high price and still conservative fundamentals reinforces that the upward cycle may only be half over.”
For more context, see Bitbo’s Puell Multiple chart and miner revenue data.
Additionally, Glassnode data shows most holders are in profit, with Bitcoin trading above key short-term cost bases, reducing the risk of panic selling for now.
