Key Takeaways
- Bitwise projects Bitcoin could hit $1 million by 2029 if it matches gold's market cap.
- The base prediction for 2025 is $200,000, rising to $500,000 with U.S. government adoption.
- ETFs and U.S. wirehouse exposure are expected to drive long-term structural inflows.
Bitcoin could surpass $1 million by 2029 if institutional and government adoption continues to accelerate, according to André Dragosch, head of European research at Bitwise.
Speaking on Cointelegraph’s Chain Reaction X show, Dragosch said the firm’s internal forecast is based on Bitcoin matching gold’s market cap, which currently stands at over $21.7 trillion.
In contrast, Bitcoin’s market cap is $1.9 trillion.
Dragosch said:
Our in-house prediction is $1 million by 2029. So that Bitcoin will match gold’s market cap and total addressable market by 2029.
Current market cycle predictions
For the current market cycle, Dragosch sees Bitcoin hitting $200,000 by the end of 2025 as the “base case,” rising to $500,000 if the U.S. government begins acquiring Bitcoin directly.
The U.S. is reportedly exploring “budget-neutral” methods to invest in Bitcoin, including using tariff revenues or revaluing gold certificates.
Impact of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs
Dragosch also emphasized the impact of structural inflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs.
He noted that BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust became the fastest-growing ETF in history, a sign that institutional demand could stretch Bitcoin’s typical four-year cycle.
Referencing ETF patterns, Dragosch said:
In the second and third year, we will see growing inflows.
He added that major U.S. wirehouses like Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley, which manage over $10 trillion, have yet to fully open ETF access to clients.
