Bitcoin touched $78,381 on Coinbase Thursday, its highest level in over three months as a confluence of macro catalysts and thinning sell-side pressure drove the rally.
The move came after the U.S. Treasury doubled buyback sizes for long-duration debt, a step that eased bond market stress and lifted risk assets broadly.
Alden sees fading downside risks
Macro economist Lyn Alden told CNBC that bitcoin investment sentiment has been weak in recent months, but she sees few remaining triggers for further declines.
She pointed to significant outflows of short-term “fast money” and noted that market participants see a low likelihood of additional selling by Strategy, which runs a bitcoin treasury operation.
Alden added that multiple indicators show both bitcoin’s valuation and sentiment are near the bottom of their ranges, and that even a modest rise could attract new buyers:
“Positive chart signals alone could bring technical traders back, and if upside momentum strengthens, funds could follow.”
ETF inflows accelerate
U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs drew $608 million in net inflows on Thursday, extending a four-session streak that pushed August’s total to $2.07 billion — already the highest monthly figure of 2026.
Cumulative net inflows across all U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs now stand at $53.4 billion.
Short squeeze and skepticism
The rally liquidated over $2.75 billion in bitcoin shorts on Wednesday alone, with another $747.7 million in short positions wiped out in the following 24 hours.
The Fear & Greed Index climbed to 62, its highest reading since bitcoin’s October 2025 all-time high of $126,080.
Not everyone is convinced the move will hold.
MEXC Research chief analyst Shawn Young said:
“The Treasury opened a pressure valve, and crypto priced it like a regime change. Bitcoin’s push above $70,000 looks premature to me.”
Bitcoin remains roughly 38% below its all-time high, and the next catalyst investors are watching is whether the Clarity Act — a crypto market structure bill Trump urged Congress to pass — advances toward a September vote.
