Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin's price surge is linked to rising Trump election odds.
- MicroStrategy's stock, up 191%, is a leading indicator of Bitcoin's strength.
- Bernstein predicts Bitcoin could hit $80,000 if Trump wins the election.
Bitcoin’s recent strength is attributed to its correlation with Donald Trump’s increasing election odds, according to Bernstein analysts.
After a 5% surge on Tuesday, Bitcoin’s price rose to over $67,000, up 5% in October. MicroStrategy’s stock, up 191% in 2024, is highlighted as a key indicator of Bitcoin’s bullish momentum.
Trump’s odds
Analysts Gautam Chhugani, Mahika Sapra, and Sanskar Chindalia note that despite bipartisan support for digital assets, Trump’s improved chances have boosted market sentiment.
Trump leads Kamala Harris with a 58% chance of winning, according to Polymarket, which also shows strong odds for a Republican-controlled Senate and mixed chances for a Republican sweep.
MSTR holdings
MicroStrategy has aggressively expanded its Bitcoin holdings, now totaling 252,220 BTC, worth over $16 billion.
The company’s strategy of leveraging equity and debt to buy Bitcoin has paid off, making it a leading corporate Bitcoin holder.
If Trump wins
While Bernstein analysts believe Bitcoin could hit $80,000 to $90,000 if Trump wins, a Harris victory might test the $40,000 range.
