Bitcoin opened 2026 around $87,500 ahead of the year’s first Wall Street trading session, after a weak finish to 2025.
Volatility signals build
Traders highlighted a bullish divergence on the relative strength index (RSI) on three-day timeframes.
Jelle wrote on X that bitcoin had a “locked in 3-day bull div” sitting on key support, adding that “$BTC looks good for upside this quarter.”
Other analysts focused on volatility measures.
Quantdata21 said daily Bollinger Band width had tightened to a rare extreme while weekly RSI was below 40. They wrote:
“There is only one other occasion that daily bollinger band width has squeezed this tight with weekly RSI below 40. That was january 2023, and we all know what happened to bitcoin from there.”
A red post-halving year
Bitcoin ended 2025 with its first red 12-month candle in a post-halving year, fueling debate about whether the four-year cycle still applies.
‘RIP’ to the four-year cycle
Simon Dixon, founder and CEO of Bitcoin security company Bnk To The Future, posted “RIP Bitcoin 4 Year Cycle,” calling 2026 a “new era.”
Separately, trader Michaël van de Poppe said he expected a test of $90,000 in the coming week.
