Bitcoin climbed back above $71,000 during early Asian trading hours on Wednesday after the Trump administration sent Iran a 15-point plan aimed at ending the war, sparking a brief wave of optimism across risk assets.
Ceasefire proposal lifts bitcoin
Data from TradingView showed BTC rose as much as 4% to an intraday high of $71,300, recovering from Tuesday’s low of $68,890 and fully recouping the prior day’s losses.
The US sent the proposal through Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff, Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir, as the primary intermediary.
Key elements include a temporary ceasefire, demands that Iran dismantle or severely limit its nuclear program, suspend ballistic-missile work, and fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz for maritime traffic.
Iran continues to deny any ongoing talks, even as Trump delayed his self-imposed deadline for Tehran to reopen the strait.
Following the news, WTI crude oil dropped 5.75% to $87 per barrel and Brent crude shed 6% to $98, easing inflation fears tied to disrupted shipping lanes.
Analysts at Coinlore noted the swift repricing, saying:
“Bitcoin is now acting as a real-time sentiment instrument for global risk.”
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr added that BTC will:
“Likely remain headline-driven until the US and Iran send a public de-escalation signal.”
Resistance at $72,000 caps the rally
Despite the rebound, bitcoin’s upside appears capped at $72,000, according to analysts, where the 50-day moving average and the upper trend line of a symmetrical triangle converge.
A break above that level would confirm a bullish breakout targeting $92,400, according to analysts, roughly 30% above current prices.
Glassnode’s cost-basis distribution heatmap shows concentrated supply between $72,000 and $74,000, where investors acquired roughly 380,000 BTC over the past 30 days, suggesting sellers could aggressively defend this zone.
On the downside, a dense accumulation cluster sits near $65,000, where investors previously acquired 160,000 BTC.
If that level breaks, it could open the door to the triangle’s bearish target of $52,500, according to Glassnode.
Macro index signals deeper pain possible
Capriole Investments’ Bitcoin Macro Index has dropped to -1.37, a level historically associated with the depths of prior bear cycles.
The metric has typically spent around a year at or below these valuations before recovering.
Capriole founder Charles Edwards said:
“In all prior instances, price went lower into deeper value first before recovering, suggesting we may have more rough times ahead first.”
