Bitcoin traded around $74,000 after failing to break and hold above $76,000, prompting fresh “bull trap” warnings as the rebound ran into heavy overhead resistance.
Spot demand looks thin
CryptoQuant contributor Easy On Chain said the market is showing “a critical structural vulnerability” as it shifts from spot-led strength to a derivatives-driven move.
He pointed to the Coinbase Premium Index staying negative even as BTC hit six-week highs, a sign US spot demand is not keeping pace.
Easy On Chain wrote:
“In this absence of spot-buying support, we are witnessing an extreme decoupling between investor cohorts where smart money is tactically distributing its supply.”
Open interest divergence raises bull trap risk
Another CryptoQuant contributor, MAC_D, said onchain data suggests older holders are distributing while newer investors are taking their place.
MAC_D highlighted a divergence on the 1-hour timeframe, with price rising while futures traders appear reluctant to add risk.
MAC_D warned:
“If this lack of bullish positioning in the futures market continues, the current move could turn into a bull trap.”
Resistance levels still in focus
Order-book and liquidation data showed BTC stalling near $76,000 before reversing, according to analysts.
Keith Alan of Material Indicators said bulls are trying to flip resistance around $75,000, with potential targets at $78,300 and $82,500 if price can push higher.
Alan said:
“The confluence between the moving averages, Timescapes Levels and the structure add strength to those levels, and there is a lot of ask liquidity laddered between here and there that will make that move challenging.”
Separately, trader Mister Crypto compared the setup to a bear flag and posted:
“$BTC is forming a textbook bear flag here… Don’t say I didn’t warn you.”
