Bitcoin’s recent recovery is “fragile” as geopolitical and macroeconomic headwinds from the ongoing Middle East conflict weigh on crypto markets, according to Nic Puckrin, founder of the Coin Bureau.
Puckrin told Cointelegraph that even a swift end to the war would not quickly resolve its market consequences:
“Even if the war ends now, its repercussions will likely be the story of 2026, and certainly the dominant narrative for Q2. I don’t expect to see a rate cut until late Q3 or Q4, if at all.”
What it would take to reach $90K
Puckrin outlined a specific set of conditions needed for bitcoin to push meaningfully higher:
“For a push toward $90,000, we would need to see a combination of factors: a ceasefire that results in the end of geopolitical tensions, a sustained drop in oil prices toward $80, and ideally also softer-than-expected economic data that calms stagflation fears.”
He added that a weekly close above $71,000 could signal continued upside, with resistance forming around $74,000.
Bitcoin was trading near $71,056 at time of writing, still below its 200-day moving average.
Failed peace talks and naval blockade
Bitcoin had surged roughly 5.8% beginning April 6, briefly topping $73,000, before retreating to around $71,000 on April 11 after US-Iran peace negotiations collapsed.
The Kobeissi Letter described the outcome as “arguably the worst-case scenario,” noting that “peace talks appear to have come to a screeching halt.”
Following the breakdown, President Trump announced he had directed the US Navy to establish a naval blockade around the Strait of Hormuz and intercept vessels that had paid tolls to Iran.
Rate cuts pushed back
The conflict has triggered an inflationary spike, according to the latest US Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index report, dimming hopes for near-term rate cuts.
FOMC members remain divided on further easing in 2026, and the March meeting minutes did not rule out a rate hike if inflation stays above the 2% target.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is over a 98% probability the Fed holds rates steady at both the April 29 and June 17 meetings.
The probability of a 25-basis-point cut only rises to about 33.6% by the July 29 meeting, suggesting the bitcoin price may face a prolonged period of macro pressure.
