Over $104 billion worth of long-held Bitcoin has moved since 2024, igniting a debate about whether true long-term holders (OGs) or recent traders are driving the latest market sell-off.
Surge in old bitcoin movement
Cointelegraph reported that more than 400,000 BTC shifted from long-term holder (LTH) wallets in the past 30 days, coinciding with Bitcoin’s price decline from $126,000 to $100,000.
Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy, highlighted the scale of the movement in a recent analysis:
“An enormous amount of distribution has occurred.”
Thorn noted that over 470,000 BTC older than five years changed hands in 2025, and combined with 2024, the total reached over $104 billion—nearly half of all Bitcoin that has circulated for five years or more.
This prompted concern from Troy Cross, a philosophy professor and Bitcoin commentator, who argued that if early adopters are selling in size, it suggests OG holders may no longer view Bitcoin as fundamentally distinct from traditional investments.
Disagreement over ‘OG dumping’ narrative
Onchain analyst Checkmate pushed back against the idea that original holders are capitulating, stating that most of the revived supply stems from coins held for less than two years. Checkmate explained:
“The majority of 2025’s revived supply actually comes from coins held for far shorter periods (six months to two years), typical of traders locking in profits rather than true long-term believers leaving the market.”
Blockstream CEO Adam Back agreed, noting that onchain data shows the majority of moved coins are from recent-cycle traders.
Analysis of revived supply reveals 700,000 BTC moved had been dormant for six months to one year, while just 50,000 BTC were dormant for five to seven years.
Dual pressure from etfs and long-term holders
According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s recent price dip is the result of a “two-front selling war”—with both institutional spot ETF investors and LTHs contributing to downward pressure.
The seven-day cumulative netflow for spot Bitcoin ETFs has declined by nearly $21 billion, marking the largest outflow in six weeks.
This shift has turned ETF inflows into a new source of supply, undermining previous support for the price.
Unless institutional demand rebounds or LTHs slow their sales, analysts warn that the market may remain supply-heavy in the near term.
