Bitcoin is on track to end November with losses, breaking from its historical trend of strong gains during this month.
According to Bitfinex analysts, this marks the second consecutive month of negative returns, challenging the reliability of seasonal trends that have typically favored October and November for positive price action.
Historic seasonality under pressure
Historically, November has been Bitcoin’s strongest month, boasting an average return of 40.82%, while October usually brings gains of nearly 20%.
However, this year October closed down 3.69%, and as Bitfinex analysts noted, November also appears set to close in the red, with Bitcoin trading 20.60% below its price at the month’s start. The analysts stated:
“In the current quarter, historic seasonality metrics have failed to hold up.”
Short-term holders and capitulation
This is only the third time since early 2024 that Bitcoin’s price has dipped below the lower band of the short-term holders’ cost-basis model.
Short-term holders—those holding Bitcoin for less than 155 days—have an average realized price of $86,787.
Bitfinex analysts attribute the latest price drop to excessive market froth, noting that heavy buying at the $106,000 to $118,000 range has led to many investors now capitulating at a loss.
Whale activity and future scenarios
Despite the weak sentiment, some signs point to growing interest among large holders.
According to sentiment tracker Santiment, wallets with at least 100 BTC have increased by 0.47%—91 additional wallets—since November 11.
Bitfinex sees two possible paths ahead: a meaningful resurgence in demand or a deeper, prolonged accumulation phase for the market.
Looking ahead to December
While seasonal trends are under scrutiny, historical data indicates December has been a quieter month for Bitcoin, with average returns of just 4.75% since 2013.
