Bitcoin reclaimed $68,000 on March 31 after Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Tehran had the “necessary will” to end the war, provided certain guarantees were put in place.
The broader crypto market added roughly $40 billion in value following the remarks, with bitcoin climbing nearly 2%.
Iran war de-escalation lifts market
The Kobeissi Letter noted that oil prices dropped 5% in about three minutes after Pezeshkian’s comments surfaced, suggesting algorithmic trading systems quickly seized on the headline.
More than $1 trillion in market value moved across global markets within minutes as investors repriced the likelihood of a prolonged conflict.
US stocks joined the rally, with the S&P 500 gaining 2.5% on the day and adding roughly $1.4 trillion in market capitalization.
The US Dollar Index fell nearly 1%, as traders rotated back into risk assets that had been battered by surging energy prices and fears of a wider regional disruption.
Oil shock had been weighing on bitcoin
Brent crude had been on course for its biggest monthly gain on record, up 54% since the start of March, with prices consistently trading above the $100 mark throughout the month.
That oil shock became the central macro channel linking the conflict to crypto, with bitcoin and other digital assets increasingly trading like broader risk-sensitive instruments during periods of rising yields and inflation anxiety.
As crude surged, investors worried that prolonged disruption to Middle East energy flows would keep price pressures elevated and reduce room for central banks to ease policy, weighing on the bitcoin fear and greed index throughout the period.
IMF warns of broader economic fallout
The International Monetary Fund warned that a prolonged conflict choking flows through the Gulf would lead to higher prices and slower growth worldwide.
That view shaped investor behavior across asset classes, with traders watching not just the battlefield but also the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints.
The terms sought by Tehran were not immediately clear, leaving markets to react to the possibility of de-escalation rather than any concrete diplomatic framework.
A Wall Street Journal report published the same day indicated that President Trump was also keen on ending the war soon, lending further weight to the de-escalation narrative.
