Bitcoin has fallen to a four-week low, trading under $109,000 as of late Thursday, amid rising signs of market exhaustion.
Onchain data from Glassnode shows that long-term holders collectively realized profits on 3.4 million bitcoin, a level often seen near previous market cycle tops.
Profit-taking hits cycle peak
According to Glassnode, the ratio of realized profit to loss has spiked above 90% for coins moved three times this cycle.
Historically, such peaks have marked major local tops for bitcoin, prompting expectations of a market cooling phase.
The analytics firm commented that “probabilities favor a cooling phase ahead.”
Signs of stress among recent holders
10x Research head Markus Thielen noted that the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) has dipped to 1.01, indicating some holders are now selling at a loss—a signal of increased market stress.
In the past, SOPR levels below 1 have indicated seller exhaustion in bull markets, while rejections at or above 1 in bear markets can signal further downside.
The Short-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) is also approaching zero, raising the risk of forced liquidations among newer buyers.
Outlook remains uncertain
Glassnode analysts warned that unless institutional and holder demand rebounds:
“The risk of deeper cooling remains high, highlighting a macro structure that increasingly resembles exhaustion.”
Thielen stated that 10x Research remains neutral “unless Bitcoin can reclaim $115,000.”
Meanwhile, MicroStrategy chair Michael Saylor remained optimistic, expecting a rebound for bitcoin after macroeconomic headwinds clear.
At the time of writing, bitcoin was priced at $109,645, down 6.5% over the past week.
