Bitcoin’s market cycles are not anchored around halving events, according to analyst James Check, who asserts that other factors are more influential in determining bull and bear markets.
Analyst outlines alternative cycle drivers
James Check stated on Wednesday:
“In my opinion, Bitcoin has experienced three cycles, and they are not anchored around the halvings.”
He described the cycles as:
- An “adoption cycle” from 2011 to 2018 driven by retail interest.
- An “adolescence cycle” from 2018 to 2022 marked by leveraged booms and busts.
- A “maturity cycle” from 2022 onward characterized by institutional involvement.
Check argued the market’s 2017 peak and 2022 bottom were key transition points, emphasizing:
“Things changed after the 2022 bear market, and folks who assume the past will repeat likely miss the signal because they are looking at the historical noise.”
Halving cycle theory remains popular
Despite Check’s view, the prevalent belief is that Bitcoin’s halving events induce supply shocks, triggering four-year market cycles.
Historically, bull market peaks have occurred the year after a halving, including 2013, 2017, and 2021, with many expecting a repeat in 2025.
Check additionally remarked:
“Bitcoin is literally the only other endgame asset alongside gold.”
Implying the current cycle may be prolonged due to institutional maturity.
Calls for end of four-year cycle
Some analysts, including Bitwise CIO Matthew Hougan, have predicted the traditional four-year cycle could be ending, with institutional participation potentially extending the bull phase.
Entrepreneur “TechDev” commented:
“The business cycle’s dynamics are all that’s been needed to understand Bitcoin’s.”
Glassnode: cycle patterns still evident
Glassnode analysts recently reported that Bitcoin continues to track its traditional cycle patterns.
On Tuesday, they noted that increased profit-taking and selling pressure suggest the market is entering a late phase of the current cycle.
Position trader Bob Loukas offered his perspective:
“I hear often, ‘There are no more Bitcoin cycles’. Reality is, we’re always in cycles. We just can’t help ourselves. We pump until it bursts, because we just want more. Then we start again. Only difference is how much shrapnel you avoid and how quickly you reset.”
The debate continues over what truly drives Bitcoin’s cycles, as institutional players and liquidity dynamics challenge traditional halving-based models.
