Key Takeaways
- CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju says Bitcoin's cycle theory is no longer useful.
- ETFs and institutional demand are now driving Bitcoin's price, not whale or miner activity.
- Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) holds 555,450 BTC, showing long-term institutional conviction.
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju says Bitcoin’s long-observed market cycle theory is outdated, citing surging institutional activity and inflows from U.S.-based spot ETFs.
Admission of past misjudgment
In a post on X, Ju admitted he had wrongly called the end of the bull market two months ago, noting:
Bitcoin selling pressure is easing, and massive inflows are coming through ETFs… In the past, the market was pretty simple… old whales, miners, and retail passed the bag to each other.
Two months ago, I said the bull cycle was over, but I was wrong. #Bitcoin selling pressure is easing, and massive inflows are coming through ETFs.
— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) May 9, 2025
In the past, the Bitcoin market was pretty simple. The main players were old whales, miners, and new retail investors, basically… pic.twitter.com/oN4n6vNc0s
Changing dynamics with institutional players
Now, the presence of players like MicroStrategy—now known as Strategy—and rising allocations from traditional finance (TradFi) institutions are changing the game.
Strategy alone holds 555,450 BTC after acquiring another 1,895 BTC for $180.3 million.
Declining relevance of traditional indicators
Historically, on-chain analysts used miner reserves and whale wallet movements to predict market tops and bottoms.
But Ki argues these signals are losing relevance.
He wrote:
It feels like it’s time to throw out that cycle theory… Now, it’s more important to focus on how much new liquidity is coming from institutions and ETFs.
Weaker predictive power of traditional metrics
Even metrics like the Signal 365 Moving Average and CryptoQuant’s Bull-Bear Indicator are showing weaker predictive power.
While the Bull-Bear Indicator just turned weakly bullish for the first time since February, analysts caution it may no longer trigger the same market moves.
Conclusion on on-chain data
ETF inflows returned in May, with Bitcoin holding above $100,000.
Ju concluded:
Just because I was wrong doesn’t mean on-chain data is useless. Data is just data, and perspectives vary.
