Bitcoin slipped from an intraday high near $68,300 on Thursday as traders pointed to fresh signs of capitulation following a 46% drawdown from the $126,000 peak.
Long-term holders keep distributing
Glassnode data on long-term holder (LTH) net-position change showed a sharp reduction in coins held over 30 days, including a 245,000 BTC decline on Feb. 6.
Since then, the cohort has reduced exposure by roughly 170,000 BTC on average, a pattern analysts compared with corrective phases seen in 2019 and mid-2021.
Z-score signals deep capitulation
CryptoQuant’s MVRV Adaptive Z-Score (365-day window) fell to -2.66, a level the firm’s contributor GugaOnChain described as consistent with persistent capitulation.
GugaOnChain wrote:
“The current Z-Score reading of -2.66 proves that Bitcoin remains persistently in the capitulation zone. The indicator suggests that we are approaching the historical accumulation phase.”
Related measures are also weakening.
Glassnode said Bitcoin’s realized profit/loss ratio was close to breaking below 1, a threshold historically associated with broad-based capitulation.
Analysts point to late-2026 timing
Crypto analyst Tony Research argued the “final capitulation” may still be ahead, calling for a $40,000–$50,000 bottom between mid-September and late November 2026.
Tony Research said:
“My take is, $BTC will bottom at $40K–50K, most likely forming between mid-September and late November 2026.”
Titan of Crypto separately noted that prior bear-cycle lows in 2018 and 2022 arrived about 12 months after the bull-market top, which would imply an October window given the Oct. 2, 2025 high.
On-Chain College highlighted net realized losses reaching $13.6 billion on Feb. 7 and added:
“The 2022 loss peak occurred 5 months before the actual bear market bottom was printed.”
