Bitcoin has entered the early stages of a new bull market after a 24% rally pushed key onchain and demand indicators into bullish territory, according to CryptoQuant.
The firm’s Bull Score Index jumped to 80 from 30 over the past week, hitting its highest level since October 2025 as eight of its ten underlying indicators now flash bullish.
Weekly close above $83K needed
Bitcoin climbed above $80,000 during the rally, but CryptoQuant said a weekly close above its 365-day moving average — currently around $83,000 — is needed to confirm the shift to a sustained bull market.
The move has been supported by accelerating spot demand, with spot and futures demand growing together for the first time since early October 2025.
LMAX Group market strategist Joel Kruger pointed to the May 2026 high of $82,820 as the next critical level:
“A clear break above that level would reinforce the view that a meaningful cycle low is now in place and shift attention towards the next major move through $100,000 and, ultimately, the 2025 record high.”
Whale profit-taking raises caution
Despite the bullish signals, CryptoQuant warned the rally may be overheated in the short term. Traders’ unrealized profit margins have climbed to 20.5%, their highest since June 2025.
CryptoQuant noted the last time the metric hit similar levels:
“Bitcoin fell about 30% after the metric reached 19% in early May, when BTC was trading near $82,000.”
Short-term holder whales realized roughly $1.2 billion in profits between Aug. 20 and Aug. 22, including a record $614 million on Aug. 20 alone.
Exchange inflows spike
Bitcoin exchange inflows surged to approximately 53,000 BTC — their highest since June — signaling that more coins are moving onto trading platforms where they could be sold.
CryptoQuant summarized the tension between macro bullishness and near-term risk:
“Spot and futures demand are growing together for the first time since early October 2025, but rising trader profits and heavy whale profit-taking could bring near-term turbulence.”
At the time of writing, bitcoin was trading around $79,000, still roughly 6% below the price drawdown from its all-time high confirmation level.
