Bitcoin climbed back to $72,530 on Monday as markets digested the details of the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, with both crypto and equities staging a relief bounce after initial losses.
Panic fades, but uncertainty remains
The blockade took effect at 10 a.m. EDT, but traders were relieved to learn it would not impede shipping traffic to and from non-Iranian ports.
According to trading resource The Kobeissi Letter, the US would “not impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports,” though it warned US gas prices could hit $4.25 per gallon if Iranian oil exports are cut off.
WTI crude oil hovered around $102 per barrel after briefly retesting the $100 level at the start of futures trading.
Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite turned green on the day, reversing early losses tied to the breakdown of US-Iran negotiations.
QCP Capital noted that China sits at the center of the situation, since Iranian crude flows largely east, meaning any effective blockade would cut directly into Beijing’s supply chain.
The firm wrote:
“Crypto is reflecting that view. Despite renewed blockade threats, implied vols and risk reversals have drifted back toward pre-conflict levels, a signal that panic has faded even if uncertainty has not.”
Traders warn of downside risk
Despite the bounce, traders remained cautious on short-term bitcoin price direction.
Trader Jelle warned that BTC/USD may print a “Bart Simpson” failed breakout pattern, effectively erasing its gains from earlier in April.
He flagged $70,500 as the key level to watch, noting that losing it could trigger a full retracement of the ceasefire-driven pump.
Jelle had previously flagged a bear flag pattern on the daily chart as “still in play,” which threatened a repeat of January’s price action and potential new macro lows.
Mid-range with no clear trade
Trader CrypNuevo saw little reason to act at current levels, writing in an X thread:
“It’s the clearest chart in a long time: Nothing to do here at mid-range - wait for price to trade at one of the extremes, probably this week or the next.”
CrypNuevo identified the $59,000–$61,000 zone as a potential area for entering swing long positions, suggesting the price drawdown from all-time highs could deepen before a meaningful recovery takes hold.
