Key Takeaways
- On-chain indicators show muted speculation and robust, long-term demand in 2025.
- Institutional and sovereign buyers, along with ETF flows, are driving a historic supply-demand imbalance.
- Price trends are increasingly shaped by liquidity cycles and macroeconomic factors, not speculative peaks.
As bitcoin approaches new all-time highs in 2025, some market watchers warn of a potential ‘top’ reminiscent of 2021.
However, both structural and fundamental factors suggest a markedly different environment this cycle, according to Onramp Bitcoin.
On-chain signals: muted speculation, strong demand
Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score—a measure of market valuation—remains around 2.5, well below the euphoric 7–9 levels seen at previous cycle peaks.
Long-term holders are distributing coins into strength, but the bid is now dominated by institutional, corporate, and sovereign buyers, rather than short-term traders.
Leverage reset and ETF-driven buying
The collapse of FTX and related entities has purged much of the hidden leverage and synthetic ‘paper bitcoin’ that inflated supply in 2021, according to Onramp.
Derivatives open interest remains below prior peaks, with spot ETFs absorbing real coins as fully-reserved buyers. This has reduced counterparty risk and stabilized the market structure.
Macro backdrop: liquidity turns supportive
Unlike 2021’s tightening cycle, the current monetary environment features central banks nearing the end of rate hikes and global liquidity on the rise.
Record global debt strengthens bitcoin’s appeal as a non-sovereign reserve asset.
Narrative shift: from speculation to reserve asset
Regulatory and institutional attitudes have transformed, with the U.S. and states like Texas endorsing strategic bitcoin reserves.
Major financial firms—including BlackRock and Goldman Sachs—now offer bitcoin access.
Price cycles are increasingly linked to liquidity trends and structural adoption, not speculative blow-offs.
“$107 trillion in capital identified. A 5% allocation = $5T. Only 1.1 million Bitcoin left to mine. 62% of active supply hasn’t moved in over a year. This may be the greatest supply-demand mismatch in financial history.”
“While everyone celebrates the fact that inflation came in under expectations, it is worth noting that prices are still rising, the dollar is still debasing and only hard assets like Bitcoin can protect you from this relentless hidden tax.”
With compressed volatility and growing institutional participation, many prior cycle frameworks may no longer apply as bitcoin’s role in the global financial system quietly expands, according to Onramp.
