Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin closed November at a record $96,506.
- Long-term holders have distributed 508,990 BTC since September.
- Short-term holder demand is key to Bitcoin’s $100K target.
Bitcoin’s (BTC) potential ascent to $100,000 will be determined by the interplay between short-term holder (STH) demand and long-term holder (LTH) profit-taking, per the “Bitfinex Alpha” report.
Despite an 8.64% pullback last week, Bitcoin closed November at $96,506, a record for the month, with an impressive 37.3% gain — the year’s second-best monthly performance.
Historical performance
Historically, halving years have seen Bitcoin prices rise by an average of 38.86%, supporting optimism for continued growth in December.
Supply challenge
However, the report highlights a critical supply challenge: LTHs have distributed 508,990 BTC since September, adding pressure on STHs to absorb the supply.
This level remains below the March rally’s peak of 934,000 BTC distributed, but it is substantial enough to influence the short-term market outlook.
Currently, STH supply is nearing a cycle high of 3.28 million BTC. If STH demand surpasses pre-halving cycle highs, Bitcoin could sustain its upward momentum.
The Long-Term Holder SOPR, a metric indicating profit-taking intensity, is at 2.6 — below the market-top threshold of 3, suggesting room for further growth if demand persists.
December’s heightened volatility, driven by major options expirations and potential profit-taking, could temper gains. However, if STH demand remains robust, Bitcoin’s path to $100,000 may remain intact despite short-term fluctuations.
