Key Takeaways
- Bernstein adjusts Bitcoin estimate to $50,000 under Harris win.
- Bitcoin forecast raised to $80,000-$90,000 if Trump wins.
- Long-term target set at $200,000 by 2025, regardless of election.
Research and brokerage firm Bernstein has adjusted its short-term Bitcoin price targets based on the outcome of the upcoming U.S. presidential election.
$80,000 to $90,000
Analysts now predict a range of $80,000 to $90,000 if Donald Trump wins, while a victory for Kamala Harris could see Bitcoin initially drop to $50,000 before potential recovery.
These adjustments represent an increase from Bernstein’s previous estimate of $30,000 to $40,000 under a Harris administration.
Policy
The report attributes these projections to perceived differences in policy approach, with Trump seen as more favorable toward Bitcoin, while Harris is expected to maintain a stricter regulatory stance.
However, the analysts maintain a bullish long-term view, projecting Bitcoin to reach $200,000 by the end of 2025, independent of the election outcome.
They cite persistent U.S. fiscal challenges, increasing demand for hard assets, and a potential boost from spot Bitcoin ETFs as primary drivers.
Current predictions
On the prediction markets, Trump currently leads Harris with a 57.9% probability on Polymarket, while Harris leads narrowly in national polls.
The race’s outcome may prompt short-term volatility, according to Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani, with Polymarket odds converging as recent poll data impacted market sentiment.
Bernstein also noted potential sector-wide effects, suggesting that pro-Bitcoin policies could benefit the mining sector and crypto regulations overall, while Ethereum might see limited gains under Harris due to regulatory hurdles.
